Scott Alexander has a recent piece about "deontological bars" in the context of AI safety. He describes the state of the discourse like this:
I’ve been thinking about this lately
The confusion
I recently came upon a comment which I believe reflects a persistent confusion among rationalist/EA types. I was reading this post which contains ideas that the other has but doesn&
The power of low correlations
One innovation on social media that I perceive as having received a reasonable amount of praise from diverse constituencies is "Community Notes" on X (Twitter at
How they really feel about privacy
I took at look at the prediction market Kalshi recently, and came across something interesting on their FAQ page. This page appears to me to be largely
Update: Fixed exponentiation of estimated parameters.
Summary
I use data from METR's recent developer productivity experiment to assess the possibility of heterogeneity in the effect of AI on time to complete
