Deontological bars should reference the actor's beliefs
Scott Alexander has a recent piece about "deontological bars" in the context of AI safety. He describes the state of the discourse like this:
I’ve been thinking about this lately
"Bad faith" means intentionally misrepresenting your beliefs
The confusion
I recently came upon a comment which I believe reflects a persistent confusion among rationalist/EA types. I was reading this post which contains ideas that the other has but doesn&
Will AI make everything more correlated?
The power of low correlations
One innovation on social media that I perceive as having received a reasonable amount of praise from diverse constituencies is "Community Notes" on X (Twitter at
I want the deal that the US Government got
How they really feel about privacy
I took at look at the prediction market Kalshi recently, and came across something interesting on their FAQ page. This page appears to me to be largely
Assessing heterogeneity in METR's late 2025 developer productivity experiment
Update: Fixed exponentiation of estimated parameters.
Summary
I use data from METR's recent developer productivity experiment to assess the possibility of heterogeneity in the effect of AI on time to complete