Disjunctive arguments can be a reverse multiple-stage fallacy
Assume we want to know the probability that two events co-occur (i.e. of their conjunction). If the two events are independent, the probability of the co-occurrence is the product of the probabilities
My simple argument for AI policy action
Many arguments over the risks of advanced AI systems are long, complex, and invoke esoteric or contested concepts and ideas. I believe policy action to address the potential risks from AI is desirable
Ex-OpenAI employee amici leave to file denied in Musk v OpenAI case?
Several ex-employees of OpenAI filed an amicus brief in the Musk v OpenAI[1] case. This proposed brief argues that OpenAI should not be allowed to move from its existing nonprofit structure to
Don't accuse your interlocutor of being insufficiently truth-seeking
I argue that you shouldn't accuse your interlocutor of being insufficiently truth-seeking. This doesn't mean you can't internally model their level of truth-seeking and use that for
The limits of black-box evaluations: two hypotheticals
A prominent approach to AI safety goes under the name of "evals" or "evaluations". These are a critical component of plans that various major labs have, such as Anthropic&